Dear Readers:
I have moved to ekissinger.com/blog. Thank you very much!
親愛的讀者:
我的博客已經轉至ekissinger.com/blog。非常感謝!
Dear Readers:
I have moved to ekissinger.com/blog. Thank you very much!
親愛的讀者:
我的博客已經轉至ekissinger.com/blog。非常感謝!
原文发表在《华尔街日报》中文版9月27日,这里节选的是后半部分。
隐忧有哪些?除了上面所举的那些持谨慎甚至较悲观的经济学们所提出的问题外──这些都明摆在那里,笔者的最大担忧,并不在于在4万亿刺激经济计划过后全社会投资的下行,也不在于中国企业的出口订单数量目前看来仍然只是恢复性的增长,而在于更深层的“制度与增长”的关系问题。具体说来,由于一些民营企业家对中国社会发展中的一些长期不确定因素以及自己财产安全问题的担忧,影响了他们的预期,导致他们扩张自己工商企业的动力正在减弱。
最近,从各种渠道得到的信息中获知,由于中国经济过去十几年的高速增长,加上近几年中国经济的货币化不断加速,珠三角和长三角地区的一些民营企业家并不缺钱,或者说并不缺少进一步扩大自己企业和公司集团的资本。相反,不少民营企业家有着巨额资金,但目前却不知如何用。近年来,政府政策多变,且不可预测,加上社会不安定因素不断发生,社会的紧张度不断增强,导致许多企业家似乎都有某种社会大变局之前的那种不安。这一格局,实际上已经导致一些民营企业家很少有动力再去发展实业,去扩增自己企业的新生产能力,去发展自己的商业帝国,甚至也不去“炒煤”、“炒房地产”和“炒股”,而是把自己的资产尽量“变现(钞)化”,并设法移居国外,随之也把部分资产转移到国外。
在过去30多年的改革大潮中,尤其是在中国加入WTO之后千载难逢的出口贸易快速扩张的机会中,中国一大批民营企业家迅速崛起。他们由小到大,由弱变强,不断地扩张自己的工厂和企业集团。这是过去30年中国经济奇迹的一个最主要的动力源。如果未来中国的一大批成功企业家创生和扩大自己工商企业的冲动衰减了,任何政府刺激经济的计划,包括中国经济货币化的加速(极度扩张性的货币政策),以及股票一级市场源源不断的IPO,都将最终会是无效的,或者说就根本达不到预期的目的与收效。由此看来,尽早启动政治体制改革,建立有中国特色的现代宪政民主政治和良序公正的法治社会,使全社会各阶层的人都有一个安全感,使企业家们都有一个光明和稳定的预期,已经是当代中国经济社会发展到现阶段所刻不容缓的了。
我个人解读,温家宝总理不久前在深圳经济特区的一次讲话中所说的,“没有政治体制改革的保障,经济体制改革的成果就会得而复失”,“停滞和倒退不仅会葬送30多年的改革开放的成果和宝贵的发展机遇,窒息中国特色的社会主义事业的勃勃生机,而且违背人民的意志,最终只会是死路一条”,正是在这个意义上讲的。
(本文作者韦森,复旦大学经济学教授,澳大利亚悉尼大学经济学博士,曾在剑桥大学经济与政治学院和哈佛大学哈佛-燕京学社访学。主要研究领域为制度经济学和比较制度分析。学术著作主要有:《社会制序的经济分析导论》、《经济学与伦理学》、《经济学与哲学》、《经济理论与市场秩序》、《经济学如诗》、《思辨的经济学》以及《市场、法治与民主》等。本栏目所述仅代表他的个人观点。)

Departure: Manhattan Bridge

Arrival: Boston South Station. 抓拍正在做清洁的小店美眉

哈佛

校园一景

校园里的沙排

哈佛法学院图书馆─真的比照片还要气派很多

校园草坪

查尔斯河

河对岸的商学院草坪

Frisby

查尔斯河边

河边画者

红顶建筑

Toddler

Biking girls

周日下午的嬉戏

Stata Center, MIT. 朋友称其为“地震楼”

MIT校园一景。带我参观的哈佛同学在MIT的一路上不停地念叨着,“(MIT)真是一个悲剧。”

帆影点点

查尔斯河畔

Near Quincy Market, downtown Boston.

晚上睡的被子──来自北京,与中国人民大学2001级两千多名同学相伴四年的被套。看到它我感动得差点哭了…(对,左下角是我的脚丫)
谈话通常以“Where are you from?”(当然,我是被问者)开头,有点像人大每周五的英语角。我说我从纽约来。在纽约干嘛呢?读法学院。“哦……”意味深长。这声“哦”让我隐约感到公共管理专业的学生对法学院学生有种比较复杂的观感。专业有些相近吧,但又不是那么接近;有点惺惺相惜,又有点准同行之间的互斥。世故点的在“哦”完后0.1秒后立刻开始感慨法律是多么难学,自己当年也考过LSAT,云云。不过有个看上去像新生代嬉皮士的细细高高的美国女生接下来的话让我印象深刻。她说,you guys (law students) are too serious. [me: oh really, how so?] [she just keep talking] …we are just earnest. We actually believe we can save the world.
我觉得这位21世纪美国女嬉皮士的观察十分敏锐。这群肯尼迪学院的学生,平均年龄应该也有二十六、七了吧,但看起来是如此轻松、活泼、开心和天真,让人感觉他们是那种贵族家庭出生的、没吃过什么苦、没经过什么挫折、一心要拯救世界的小孩儿。这种气质,或者说气场,和永远都仿佛身负重担、对社会倍感绝望的法学院学生太不同了。
另一段对话则更有趣。一位说话带有轻度法国口音的同学对我进行了例行的查户口后说,”Oh my wife also studied law….blablabla…”我听到第一句就被雷了一下,以至于后面的都没有听清,只知道有提到那个臭名昭著的通过率很低的加州律考。主要是,明明我眼前是个个子跟我差不多高的女生,怎么一开口就说”我老婆……”我有点怀疑自己眼花了,于是又(在对方不太察觉的情况下)把她从头到脚打量了一番:短发,平胸,脸蛋、身材、穿着和声音都比较中性,难道是个男生?就这么一走神的趟儿,后面的话都没听清,只好支支吾吾地对付过去了。
后来问了一下我同学,果然是个女生,当然了,人家是同性恋。在纽约也没少见过同性恋,但直接大大咧咧说“我老婆”怎么怎么样的还是第一次碰到,在纽约好像一般都会说”my partner”如何如何吧。回家后查了一下,发现在麻省同性恋是可以合法结婚的(另外在康州、爱荷华、新罕布什尔、佛蒙特和华盛顿特区也合法),感叹一下自己又长见识了。

R&B Duo @ Harvard Square

Kennedy School of Government
值此中秋佳節,修書一封給Fordham法學院的全體中國同學和校友,銘記我們這個集體的成長。Go Fordham.
“Over the years, Fordham Law School’s Chinese students hailed from institutions like Harvard, Yale, Columbia, U Penn and Cornell in the US, and Tsinghua, Peking, Renmin, Fudan, Shanghai Jiao Tong, Tongji, CUPL, ECUPL, BFSU and SUFE in China; and went on to join leading law firms and companies on both sides of the Pacific.”
From: Lawrence Zhan Zhang
Date: 2010/9/20
Subject: Celebrating the Fordham Law School Chinese Alumni Community
Dear Friends,
With Mid-Autumn Festival just around the corner, I’d like to take this opportunity to share with you the list of past and present Chinese students at Fordham Law School (in both the LLM and JD programs), and celebrate the extraordinary growth of our community over the past few years.
The attached document reflects the synergistic work of many enthusiastic FLS Chinese alumni. A pilot study was conducted a few weeks ago to solicit comments and inputs, and opinions have been diligently sought as to the format of distribution.
We share our alumni information for the sustainable development of our community. Since 2008, Fordham Law welcomes an average of 15 Chinese LLM students each year. This past May, 18 Chinese LLM students and 10 Chinese JD students graduated from Fordham Law. While many of us retain fond memories of the school, a more dynamic and interactive alumni network benefits all past, present and future Fordham Law Chinese students.
The concept of “Chinese alumni” at an American law school could be elusive, especially with regard to those in the JD program. In general, it is defined by our common experience growing up in Greater China or under the Chinese culture, and the ability to speak and utilize the Chinese language. Arbitrary as the line could be, we made our best efforts to ensure that the list is neither under-inclusive or over-inclusive. That said, further additions to our existing alumni community are entirely possible, and indeed, desirable.
Right now, there are exactly 100 people * in the list: — JD students, Class of 2007 to 2014, day and evening programs (33 **);
– LLM students, Class of 2011 (18);
– LLM students, Class of 2010, Winter (3);
– LLM students, Class of 2010 (18);
– LLM students, Class of 2009 (13);
– LLM students, Class of 2008 (8);
– Exchange students (6);
– Visiting student (1).
* 8 out of the 100 are from Taiwan;
** 9 out of the 33 JD students earned their PhD degrees before coming to Fordham Law.
Please feel free to share your thoughts on this initiative. [...]
It is my belief that our community will grow even stronger and more dynamic in the years to come. This is just the beginning.
祝大家中秋快乐!
Best regards,
Zhan
—
Lawrence Zhan Zhang
Fordham University School of Law, J.D. Class of 2011
Fordham Journal of Corporate and Financial Law, Notes & Articles Editor
Chinese Business Lawyers Association, Vice President
http://www.cblalaw.org/
Chinese Business Lawyers Association, Inc. is a New York non-profit organization founded in early 2009. CBLA is a unique global forum of professional and social exchanges for legal, finance and other professionals with an interest in law and business in U.S. and China, without regard to location, ethnicity and language. CBLA now has about 800 members and friends.